There are two facts no right-thinking Nigerian should ignore as 2015 approaches. First: 2015 is going to produce surprises, politically. Second: unless certain things are done fast to quell the dangerous drift of our nation into self-perdition, we may all be imperiled. Forget the assurances being expressed by some highly-placed individuals, including government, the sudden turn of events in our dear country should worry every patriotic and realistic Nigerian.
I am yet to see any concrete signs from our politicians that they are ready to change from their old ways and work sincerely for the greatness of our fatherland. True!
The signals coming from every nook and cranny of Nigeria are quite ominous. The more efforts we make to contain them the worse they grow. Tell me any segment of our national life that is not troubled or traumatized by crisis? The economy is steadily being grappled by the impact of the global recession that almost sent many countries to the gallows; security is something else as all kinds of crimes are committed with impunity; poverty is stifling the citizenry; corruption has become our second nature; greed and avarice are gradually eating up our moral base; unemployment, particularly among the youth, is threatening our social fabric, while hatred and ethnicity have eroded the camaraderie and fraternity that once ruled our lives as citizens with a common patrimony. A new dimension has just been added to the litany of ills troubling Nigeria: legalization of underage or child marriage.
When will Nigeria’s elite and leaders stop disturbing the peace and tranquility of the nation by their uncomely behaviours? Imagine: they just wake up from their slumber and embark on a venture they know will not go down well with the majority of the citizens. In whose benefit do they make laws then? I will do an elaborate piece on the contentious issue at another day, but let me quickly state here that the passing into law of the bill legalizing child marriage is an unnecessary distraction. We have more important issues to legislate on instead of disturbing a sleeping dog.
It seems what politicians are interested in for now is how to win elections and control the national resources. Already, they are gearing up for action in Anambra State where governorship election is scheduled to hold in November this year. There is a serious conflict brewing in the state as to which zone the governorship pendulum will swing. The governor of the state has already pitched his tent with the northern part of the state, while some powerful politicians from other zones think otherwise. What cannot be disputed, however, is that the state is in the throes of a huge fight as the gladiators mobilize for the election. Already, tension is mounting, and nobody is sure what the outcome will be.
What is happening in Anambra State is not different from the situation in other states, where one form of election or another will hold. In all of these places, the attitude of politicians is the same. The 14 years of our current democratic dispensation appear to have done nothing to reorient our politicians. They are still as garrulous and intolerant of one another as ever. They have started threatening fire and brimstone should certain things not done before 2015.
Each geopolitical zone thinks the presidency should go to it. The North is more vocal in this connection. In fact, some of their fiery spokesmen have threatened dire consequences should the presidency not return to the North in 2015. The incumbent president is yet to openly declare his intention to contest or not. Whether he declares for or against the undeniable truth is that 2015 is already building uneasy tension.
It is the same story in the political parties: suspension and sacking of members, fractionalization, defection, and all kinds of disputes afflict them. In some states, there are up to three factions of the same political party. What happens then in 2015 if they failed to close ranks?
Zoning of political offices has remained a contentious issue. Ordinarily, zoning is not a bad idea, at least, when it is justifiably implemented. But it has the capacity to tear apart any group or party that adopts it without recourse to justice and equity. One then wonders what will happen in the political parties that have adopted zoning and now want to toe another direction. Is this not a call to anarchy? Zoning, as indicated above, should facilitate equitable rotation of political power, especially when it has always caused bad blood and undue disputations. PDP is, at present, under serious trouble because of zoning.
Even the state Houses of Assembly are also having their own share of the disputes that bedevil our polity. Rivers State House of Assembly readily comes to mind. The affairs of the House have been taken over by the National Assembly as a way of restoring law and order to the place. As anticipated, the decision is causing tension among the members of the House and their political parties. Who could have believed that Rivers State House of Assembly, once noted for its maturity and serenity, could suddenly turn into a brawling theatre, with members displaying dishonourable and demeaning tendencies? For whatever reason, the ‘war’ in Rivers State is not worth the whole trouble, after all. What really caused the rift in the state, if not 2015? And it seems nobody is ready to back down until one of the gladiators goes down. But is that supposed to be the spirit? Why can’t the warring parties think about the consequences of their actions on the state and the nation? Why can’t they sacrifice their personal ambitions for the sake of our fledgling democracy?
I have warned on two occasions in this column that the crisis in Rivers State has the capacity of engulfing the entire nation, if not checked. The signals are there for all to see: different interests are consistently coming into play in the crisis. Imagine then what will happen if the situation persists till 2015.
The Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) though not a constitutionally-recognised body is embroiled in deep crisis. The animosity among its members has been extended to their states, with each taking the ambience that will satisfy his interest in 2015. Why has nobody intervened to restore order in the forum, knowing the significant role it has played in the nation’s socio-political development? This is where I smell a rat. If the troubled forum goes into the 2015 elections in its present comatose state then we should fear for the worse.
The role various organisations, agencies and individuals have played in the Rivers crisis also calls to mind the dangers that lie ahead. While the security agencies, especially the police, are being accused of partisanship, the state government is pointing fingers at the Federal Government as the unseen hand behind the crisis. Those stoking the fire in the Rivers crisis know themselves and the great disservice they are doing to our nation. For the benefit of our democracy, I urge all those connected to the crisis to sheathe their swords and embrace peace. What affects Rivers State definitely affects the entire nation.
Poverty has been identified as one of the biggest obstacles to the advancement of humanity. In Nigeria, poverty has assumed a treacherous position, threatening a majority of our people. Most of our youth that engage in criminal activities do so out of grinding poverty. This is why it is easy for them to be bought over by politicians and used for nefarious operations. Criminality in our land will be reduced by over 50 per cent if government can reduce the current poverty ratio by half and provide more jobs for many of our teeming youth. Once this is done, then, one of the supply routes for insurgency and other criminal acts will also be destroyed. So, 2015 will only be meaningful if this objective can be achieved before the time. I am sure politicians have already schemed the idle youth into their plot to compromise the 2015 elections. But they will be disappointed if the reverse becomes the case.
What of security agencies? There is no way the 2015 elections will be successful without the cooperation of the security agencies. They play pivotal, unbiased roles in ensuring security at elections all over the world. Unfortunately, some notorious politicians have found glee in compromising them to dance to their tune. However, it is important for the government to make conscious effort to strengthen the police and other security agencies to make them readier to discharge their constitutional role without let or hindrance. It must be made a punishable offence for anybody, no matter how powerful or highly-positioned, to attempt to compromise the police or any of the security agencies. The security agencies should be made to play their role strictly in conformity with the extant laws establishing them. What transpired during the 2011 general elections, especially in my local government area, should not be allowed to repeat itself.
This brings us to the role of the election umpire itself. There is no question that the success or otherwise of 2015 rests squarely on the shoulders of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). In the past, the commission had been known to have capitulated to the desires of some politicians. The only election that did not suffer this malady was the 1993 general elections, adjudged globally to be free and fair. Sadly, the result of the election did not see the light of day. It was annulled by the military for reasons best known to them. Then enter Prof. Attahiru Jega. His tenure has so far witnessed some reformative changes, which hopefully will soon translate into concrete results. The 2015 elections are going to be a big test for Jega and his commission.
The reputation Jega has built over the years will come to test in 2015. I am certain that some mischievous politicians would like to put him to test. Whether he will live up to expectation is left for him to decide. But if I were to advise Jega as a friend, I would urge him to remain resolute and shun anything that would smear his hard-earned reputation and integrity. He should not trust the Nigerian politician, because he is crafty and foxy. It is even better for him not to expose himself to temptation ab initio, instead of allowing himself to be cajoled into doing what he would live to regret for life.
There is also need for citizenship education to drive home the need for the citizens, particularly the voters, to be vigilant and aware of their role in choosing responsible and responsive leaders in the next elections. Poor choice of leaders has always posed a problem to the aspiration of the people to elect quality leaders. It is believed that with the right attitude voters would be able to shun the carrots usually dangled before them by politicians to sway them to vote for moneybags who have little or no interest in their welfare.
The existing laws regulating the conduct of elections should be strengthened to make them more effective to meet the purposes for which they were enacted. For instance, the Electorate Law should be reassessed to see areas that make it easy for unscrupulous elements to easily get away with their offences. By do so, we will be plugging the loopholes they often exploit to perpetrate illegality and illegitimate activities.
It is a pity that the law is yet to catch up and punish any big fish that engages in any electoral offence. If it had done, then, it would have served as a deterrent to others to desist from breaching the law and making it difficult for the country to move forward.
Insurgency in the North is one intractable problem that must be resolved before we can talk of any election in 2015. I am aware of the effort by government to resolve the crisis, but it looks as if some powerful persons would want the situation to persist, because they profit from it. The State of Emergency declared in the three states of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa is into its third month, yet life is still at danger there. When will peace return fully to the three affected states (and the entire North)? The military has vowed to crush the Boko Haram sect, while the sect on its part is still threatening fire and brimstone. So, who will bell the cat? In my thinking, what is important at the moment is to find a way round the problem of Boko Haram and see how we can bring the entire country together again.
There is no alternative to peace and security. Those advocating crushing the insurgents should know that they are also Nigerians, even though some of their actions had been dastardly. The best thing to do is to continue to dialogue with the sect and explore other means to get them to see reason. I do not see any moral justification for Boko Haram to continue to kill and maim innocent Nigerians or the need for the government to descend heavily on the insurgents. There should be a middle-of-the-road course in the whole episode.
The last group we must educate and reorient is the politicians. They are the cause of all the problems of Nigeria. It is they that promote illegalities and impunities during elections. Who else does?
Some commentators believe Nigeria’s democracy is very expensive. I do too. Something can still be done to cut down on the take-home of elected office holders to make it less attractive for selfish politicians to seek such offices. As it stands now, politicians will do everything possible to win election, knowing full well that once they win they are in for a good time. I expect elections to be a platform for selfless politicians to offer themselves for service to their people. This is what it is in other climes.
Let me make a special appeal to the President: kindly use your good offices to ensure that the enemies of Nigeria and prophets of doom who have consistently predicted the demise of Nigeria on or before 2015 are put to shame. I also urge all Nigerians to shun the overtures made to them by unscrupulous and corrupt politicians to rig the elections. They must vote and defend their votes, and remain vigilant at all times.
We owe this country a duty as citizens to protect it and make it prosperous for our own good and the good of generations yet unborn.
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